As Bitcoin price continues to march higher towards $80,000, Grayscale researchers believe the asset has likely already formed a market bottom and is entering the early phase of a new bull cycle.
Summary
- Bitcoin price climbed to a 10-week high above $78,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump extended the Iran ceasefire, easing geopolitical tensions.
- Grayscale Research said on-chain data points to a market bottom, with short-term holders nearing breakeven and sell pressure declining.
- Bitcoin futures open interest rose 5.6% to $60 billion, signaling increased bullish positioning as traders anticipate further upside.
Bitcoin (BTC) price reached a 10-week high above $78,000 on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions eased.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin price rose 4.4% on April 22 to $78,251, after which it stabilized around $78,000 at the time of writing. At its present price, the token is 19% higher than its lowest point last month and 24% above its year-to-date low.
Bitcoin price rallied following Trump’s announcement to extend the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, as the market awaits more substantive talks to bring an end to the eight-week war that began on Feb. 24.
Despite the extension, Trump noted that the U.S. blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports would remain in action until Iran submits a proposal for talks to resolve the conflict permanently.
With Bitcoin trading close to a two-month high, Grayscale Research’s head of research, Zach Pandl, outlined a constructive outlook for the asset. Writing in The Stack, Pandl cited on-chain indicators showing that recent buyers are nearing breakeven following a rebound of over 20% from February lows near $63,000.
The realized price for coins that moved within the past one to three months now sits around $74,000. That shift suggests short-term holders have largely exited loss-making territory, which could ease selling pressure and support a change in sentiment. Pandl views the $65,000 to $70,000 range as a firm base.
While Bitcoin remains below its October 2025 peak, the current recovery mirrors early-stage behavior seen in previous upcycles.
“If Bitcoin price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market,” Pandl said.
Data from the Bitcoin derivatives market compiled by CoinGlass seems to show that investors have already started repositioning for further gains. In the past 24 hours, total Bitcoin Futures open interest has risen by 5.6% to $60 billion. This suggests that an increasing number of investors are betting on Bitcoin to climb higher, a sentiment evident with a long/short ratio of 1.02.
Bitcoin price analysis
On the daily chart, Bitcoin price action has formed an ascending parallel channel pattern where it consistently carves out higher highs and higher lows. As long as Bitcoin successfully trades within the boundaries of this channel, the asset would continue to remain in an uptrend, potentially reaching $80,000 next before moving toward its previous record highs.
The 20-day EMA has formed a bullish crossover with the 50-day EMA, which means the short-term momentum is now firmly in favor of the buyers. Meanwhile, the daily RSI shows there is still room for further gains before the market becomes overbought, allowing for more growth before experiencing any significant pullback.
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