Oil price news Monday showed Brent crude jumped 4.3% to $94.18 and WTI rose 5.6% to $88.54, reversing Friday’s 9% collapse as Iran reimposed Strait of Hormuz restrictions over the weekend, the US Navy seized the Iranian cargo vessel Touska, and Kpler maritime data recorded zero tanker crossings of the strait on Sunday.
Summary
- Iran’s IRGC fired on two vessels attempting to transit Saturday before declaring the strait closed until the US lifts its naval blockade.
- The USS Spruance fired several rounds at the Touska after it ignored six hours of warnings, then US Marines boarded and took custody of the ship.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Monday it has “no plans” for the Pakistan talks, leaving the ceasefire that expires Wednesday without a diplomatic path forward.
Oil price news opened the week with a sharp reversal of Friday’s optimism. Iran’s foreign minister had announced Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was completely open, sending Brent crude crashing 9%. By Saturday, Iran had reimposed restrictions, its gunboats were firing on tankers, and by Sunday the US had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. The physical market confirmed the reversal: Kpler data recorded no oil tankers crossing the strait on Sunday.
The strait normally carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber put the cumulative supply loss at nearly 600 million barrels over approximately 50 days of the crisis, a figure that does not normalize quickly even under a genuine ceasefire.
“Markets are trading in a world where there is plenty of spin, statements, and speculation, but very little information of substance,” UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan wrote in a Monday morning note. “Events over the weekend have reversed some of that optimism.”
Iran announced Saturday it was reimposing restrictions on the strait, accusing the US of failing to lift its naval blockade despite the April 8 ceasefire terms. IRGC gunboats fired on two India-flagged vessels attempting to transit. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported a tanker approached and fired upon with no prior radio warning.
The US Navy destroyer USS Spruance fired several rounds from its 5-inch gun at the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel Touska on Sunday after the ship ignored six hours of warnings to comply with the blockade. US Marines then rappelled from helicopters and took custody of the vessel. Trump announced the seizure on Truth Social, calling it a situation that “did not go well for them.”
Iran’s military called the seizure “maritime piracy” and warned retaliation would follow once the safety of the crew and their family members aboard was confirmed.
The Market’s Read and What Comes Next
The ceasefire expires Wednesday. Iran has declared it has no plans to attend a second round of Pakistan talks. The US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is heading to Islamabad regardless. That asymmetry, Washington traveling for talks while Tehran publicly refuses to show up, defines the next 48 hours as the highest-risk window since the original ceasefire was struck.
Wholesale gasoline prices rose over 3% Monday and heating oil futures, a proxy for jet fuel, spiked 4%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.6%, signaling that energy-driven inflation fears are once again bleeding into broader equity risk pricing.
For oil bitcoin dynamics, Monday’s Brent print at $94 returns crude to the level where oil inflation expectations begin to suppress Federal Reserve rate cut prospects and compress risk appetite simultaneously. Tracking prior week sessions shows that each Hormuz escalation has produced a progressively smaller BTC drawdown, suggesting institutional demand is absorbing the selling pressure even as the macro headwind persists.
