I woke up to green candles this morning for the first time in what feels like weeks. Bitcoin ripped from overnight lows near $68,200 all the way back to $71,000 in a move that wiped out $550 million worth of short positions across major exchanges.
The crypto fear and greed index is sitting at 11 — that’s not just extreme fear, that’s the lowest reading we’ve seen all year. And historically, single-digit or low-teen fear readings have preceded 15–20% rallies within 30 days about 60–75% of the time. Those aren’t bad odds.
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Why did Bitcoin go up today?
Short answer: a massive short squeeze. Traders had piled into bearish bets all week as Iran-US tensions spiked oil above $114 a barrel. When BTC held the $68K floor instead of collapsing through it, those shorts became fuel for the bounce. The liquidation cascade hit fast — $550 million gone in a matter of hours, most of it concentrated on Binance and Bybit. That kind of forced buying creates a violent move, and we got exactly that. Volume came in 34% above the weekly average, which tells me this wasn’t just short covering. Real buyers showed up.
The altcoin board looked even better. Solana gained 6.48% on the day. Ethereum jumped 5.16%. Even Cardano bounced 5.2% off its $0.25 support zone, a level that’s triggered 85% and 200% rallies in the past according to analyst Ali Martinez. When alts outperform Bitcoin on a bounce day, it usually means risk appetite is returning, not just a dead cat.
Bitcoin ETF Flows Tell a Different Story Than the Fear Index
Is the crypto market bottom in?
Here’s what most people are missing in all the panic. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $2.5 billion in capital during March alone. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas pointed out that these products are now one good day away from erasing all their 2026 losses. Year-to-date net outflows have shrunk to just $210 million. That’s recoverable in a single session. When institutional money is flowing in while retail is running for the exits, that divergence usually resolves in favor of the institutions. It doesn’t mean the bottom is confirmed today. But it means the floor has serious hands underneath it.
My Levels for This Week
BTC: $68,000 is the line. If it held through the weekend with Iran headlines blaring and oil above $110, it’s real support. I’m bidding $68,500–$69,000 on any retest with a stop at $66,800. Target is $75,000 where we got rejected twice this month. That gives me a 3:1 reward setup and I’m comfortable with the risk.
Price is in a Downtrend, trading in a Channel Down. There are signs of trend reversal. Price held up surprisingly well during this geo-political turbulence. It’s gotten rejected at $75K resistance again and pulled back below $70K key level. It’s still within a small rising channel. It needs to break back above $70K to signal it’s continued trend reversal.
SOL: Already ran 6.5% today so I’m not chasing. If it pulls back to $85–$87 I’m interested again. Same thesis as last week — SEC commodity label, pending ETFs, institutional treasury bids. Nothing changed there except the price got cheaper.
Look, the macro is ugly. Oil is high, Powell doesn’t care about your portfolio, and the Iran situation could escalate any day. But the crypto market priced in a lot of that damage already. When the fear index hits 11 and shorts are getting obliterated, the risk is usually in NOT being positioned, not in buying the dip. Manage your size, set your stops, and let the squeeze do its job.
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